Fire Emblem Heroes Refine Predictions

These predictions are based on long-established historical refine patterns rather than official announcements. While the prediction model has proven highly accurate over time, Intelligent Systems occasionally changes refine scheduling or introduces new rules. These predictions should therefore be viewed as informed estimates rather than confirmed future weapon refines.

Main Pool Heroes typically receive weapon refines about 4 to 5 years after their original release, although the exact wait can vary considerably. The Main Pool queue usually moves through one full book, or roughly one year of Main Pool releases, in about six months. Most refine batches include three Main Pool Heroes from consecutive game versions, although individual Heroes from the same title can still appear together when their versions line up.

Seasonal Heroes typically receive weapon refines about 5 to 6 years after release, although the exact wait can vary considerably. Seasonal refines progress much more slowly than Main Pool refines because only one Seasonal Hero is normally refined in each monthly batch.

As a result, the Seasonal queue can take roughly a year or more to move through what the Main Pool queue can cover in about six months. Seasonal Heroes are usually prevented from sharing a color with the Main Pool Heroes in the same batch, although this rule has occasionally been overridden.

Heroic Grail units, including Grand Hero Battle and Tempest Trials Heroes, generally receive weapon refines in release order. This makes the Grail refine queue one of the more predictable categories.

Legendary and Mythic Heroes follow a separate refine schedule. They generally receive refines in release order at a pace of approximately one Legendary or Mythic refine every other month, usually alongside their Remix updates.

These predictions use historical refine patterns established by Intelligent Systems. The model considers Hero release order, refine batch composition, color-sharing patterns, Grail release order, Choose Your Legends scheduling, and other historical refine behavior.

The prediction model is maintained by Albert Thompson Jr. and is based on the original methodology developed by Medhaos.

Intelligent Systems generally follows consistent refine patterns, but exceptions can change the expected order. Color sharing is avoided where possible, and Main Pool demotes are generally not refined together. This limitation does not apply to Seasonal demotes, which are treated like 5-star Seasonal Heroes.

September is also reserved for the Choose Your Legends banner released two years earlier. In addition, current refine batches generally include no more than one non-Seasonal Asset Hero, such as an Ascended, Rearmed, Attuned, Aided, or Entwined Hero, though this is a current pattern rather than a guaranteed rule.

Unexpected color sharing or changes to batch composition can indicate a new scheduling rule or a future conflict in the refine queue.

Some Heroes are considered to be in what the community commonly calls Refine Jail. These units are generally not expected to receive personal weapon refines.

This includes Staff units without preference weapons, non-Legendary and non-Mythic dancers, and Seasonal Heroes without preference weapons.

Several additional Heroes have also been skipped indefinitely: Olwen, Reinhardt, Hector, Ophelia, and Surtr.

Intelligent Systems could change these rules in the future, but these Heroes are not currently expected to receive weapon refines.

The tracker is updated whenever new refine information becomes available. After each official weapon refine announcement, the remaining predictions are adjusted to reflect the newest refine order and any apparent changes to Intelligent Systems’ scheduling patterns. The latest update date appears near the top of the page.