Fire Emblem Heroes Refine Predictions

These are predictions, not official announcements, but they are based on years of observed refine patterns. The model has been highly accurate over time, but Intelligent Systems still changes the refine schedule or introduces new rules from time to time. Treat these as informed estimates rather than confirmed future weapon refines.

Main Pool Heroes usually receive weapon refines about 4 to 5 years after release, though the exact wait can vary quite a bit. The Main Pool queue is currently moving through one full book, or roughly one year of Main Pool releases, in about six months. Most refine batches include three Main Pool Heroes from consecutive game versions, though Heroes from the same title can still appear together when their versions line up.

Seasonal Heroes usually receive weapon refines about 5 to 6 years after release, though the exact wait can vary quite a bit. Their queue moves much more slowly than the Main Pool queue because only one Seasonal Hero is normally refined in each monthly batch.

As a result, the Seasonal queue can take roughly a year or more to cover what the Main Pool queue can clear in about six months. Seasonal Heroes usually avoid sharing a color with the Main Pool Heroes in the same batch, although this pattern has been overridden before.

Heroic Grail units, including Grand Hero Battle and Tempest Trials Heroes, usually receive weapon refines in release order. That makes the Grail refine queue one of the easier categories to track.

Legendary and Mythic Heroes follow a separate refine schedule. They usually receive refines in release order at a pace of approximately one Legendary or Mythic refine every other month, often alongside their Remix updates.

These predictions use the refine patterns Intelligent Systems has followed over time. The model considers Hero release order, refine batch composition, color-sharing patterns, Grail release order, Choose Your Legends scheduling, and other recurring refine behavior.

The prediction model is maintained by Albert Thompson Jr. and is based on the original methodology developed by Medhaos.

IS follows patterns often enough that predictions are useful, but it still breaks those patterns from time to time. Color sharing is avoided where possible, and Main Pool demotes are generally not refined together. This limitation does not apply to Seasonal demotes, which are treated like 5-star Seasonal Heroes.

September is also reserved for the Choose Your Legends banner released two years earlier. In addition, current refine batches generally include no more than one non-Seasonal Asset Hero, such as an Ascended, Rearmed, Attuned, Aided, or Entwined Hero, though this is a current pattern rather than a guaranteed rule.

Unexpected color sharing or changes to batch composition can be an early sign of a new scheduling rule or a future conflict in the refine queue.

Some Heroes are considered to be in what the community commonly calls Refine Jail. These units are not currently expected to receive personal weapon refines.

This includes Staff units without preference weapons, non-Legendary and non-Mythic dancers, and Seasonal Heroes without preference weapons.

Several additional Heroes have also been skipped indefinitely: Olwen, Reinhardt, Hector, Ophelia, and Surtr.

Intelligent Systems could always change course, but these Heroes are not currently expected to receive weapon refines.

The tracker is updated whenever new refine information becomes available. After each official weapon refine announcement, the remaining predictions are adjusted to reflect the newest refine order and any apparent changes to Intelligent Systems’ scheduling patterns. The latest update date appears near the top of the page.